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The Willard Bishop group is out with a "Future of Food Retailing" report, projecting that "by 2020, the market share for Traditional Grocery will decrease by 1.1 percentage points to 44.7%, while share for Non-Traditional Grocery will increase slightly to 39.8%." At the same time, the report says, "Convenience Store share will increase slightly to 15.4%," while "eCommerce food and consumable sales will continue its strong growth rate of 23.1% a year," though it starts from a much smaller base.

Drilling down on the grocery numbers, the report says that "Fresh Format stores are expected to continue their strong growth over the next five years at a rate of 8.6% annually. Limited-Assortment will also experience strong growth of 7.0% per year into 2020. Super Warehouse will continue with their steady 3.3% annual growth rate. Small Grocery will see a relatively low growth rate of 2.6%. Traditional Supermarkets’ market share is expected to continue to decline by three percentage points from 38.5% in 2015 to 35.5% by 2020."

Furthermore, the report says, "Supercenters will continue their sales growth at a rate of 2.9% per year into 2020, increasing market share from 17.8% in 2015 to 18.9% by 2020. Both Dollar and Wholesale Club will perform well with annual growth rates of 4.8% and 3.0%, respectively."
KC's View:
What this report seems to make clear is that the mainstream is where you go to drown, and the middle of the road is where you'll find roadkill. The companies that survive and thrive will be the ones that define their advantages and differences specifically and compellingly, that tell their stories with clarity, and that work to establish their relevance to the shopper's needs and wants. And "Traditional" will become a negative character trait ... as will words like "conventional."