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The BBC this morning writes that “the feared recession in the US economy has already arrived, according to a report from Merrill Lynch. It said that Friday's employment report, which sent shares tumbling worldwide, confirmed that the US is in the first month of a recession.”

The Merrill Lynch report described recession as “a present day reality,” and said that the use of phrases like “recession-like” is “akin to an obstetrician telling a woman that she is 'sort of pregnant'.”

According to the story, the conclusion is by no means unanimous, with other banks and investment groups disagreeing.

Here’s the good part: “An official ruling on whether the US in recession is made by the National Bureau of Economic Research, but this decision may not come for two years. (Italics added by MNB for emphasis.)

KC's View: